Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO)
GEO moved a median of +0.04% 30 minutes after news, and -0.04% by the close. How GEO actually reacts to news — the realized, point-in-time move the market made, measured across 316 labeled events over the last three years with zero look-ahead.
GEO’s median reaction, across the day.
| Horizon | Median | % positive | Events |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-min | 0.00% | 49% | 315 |
| 30-min | +0.04% | 50% | 316 |
| 60-min | +0.30% | 57% | 316 |
| to close | -0.04% | 48% | 315 |
| Middle 50% of GEO reactions | -0.76% to +0.93% |
|---|---|
| Median reaction (30-min) | +0.04% |
| Measured reactions | 316 |
Half of all Geo Group Inc (The) REIT news events land between -0.76% and +0.93% at 30 minutes.
Reaction stats as of 2026-09-21. Newest measured event . Reaction = percent move vs. the price at the news timestamp.
How GEO reacts, by analyst action.
| Event | Events | Median 30-min | % positive | Median to close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst downgrades | 10 | -0.77% | 20% | -1.91% |
| Rating reiterations | 48 | +0.14% | 52% | +0.89% |
Last 3 years, pulled 2026-09-21. Reaction = percent move vs. the price at the news timestamp. Counts and medians only. The same measurement runs across every name in the dataset. 4 further classes were observed with fewer than 10 measured events and are not published. See how GEO ranks against every other measured name →
That’s how GEO usually reacts — get an email when it moves on news →Email me when GEO moves on news.
One email per qualifying move — the headline, the measured reaction, and how it compares to GEO's baseline. Nothing else.
Recent GEO events, each with its measured reaction.
| Date | Headline | Event | Source | 5-min | To close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Oct 05 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +0.25% | +2.07% | |
| The GEO Group Delivers Notice of Redemption for All Senior Secured Notes Due 2029 and Amends and Extends Revolving Credit Facility | Press release | Business Wire | +0.28% | -7.02% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Oct 02 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -1.27% | -2.24% | |
| The GEO Group Sells the Adelanto, California ICE Processing Center Complex Comprised of Three Facilities Totaling 2,644 Beds for $950 Million and Increases Share Repurchase Authorization to $1.25 Billion | Press release | Business Wire | -1.27% | -2.24% | |
| Form 10-Q GEO GROUP INC For: Jun 30 | SEC filing · Form 10-Q | SEC EDGAR | +0.87% | +2.27% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Aug 06 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +2.52% | +2.10% | |
| The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance | Press release | Business Wire | +2.52% | +2.10% | |
| The GEO Group Announces Contract for Company-Owned 1,320-Bed Rivers Facility in North Carolina | Press release | Business Wire | -0.90% | -3.79% | |
| The GEO Group Announces Contract for Company-Leased 1,188-Bed Big Horn Facility in Colorado | Press release | Business Wire | +0.72% | -1.34% | |
| The GEO Group Announces Date for Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call | Press release | Business Wire | -0.78% | +1.43% | |
| Form 11-K GEO GROUP INC For: Dec 31 | SEC filing · Form 11-K | SEC EDGAR | +0.00% | +0.62% | |
| Form 10-Q GEO GROUP INC For: Mar 31 | SEC filing · Form 10-Q | SEC EDGAR | -1.25% | +2.54% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: May 06 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -4.47% | +3.40% | |
| The GEO Group Reports First Quarter Results and Increases Full Year 2026 Guidance | Press release | Business Wire | -4.47% | +3.40% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Apr 28 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +0.70% | -1.55% | |
| The GEO Group Announces Date for First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call | Press release | Business Wire | +0.35% | +1.84% | |
| Form ARS GEO GROUP INC For: Dec 31 | SEC filing · Form ARS | SEC EDGAR | -1.27% | -0.30% | |
| Form DEF 14A GEO GROUP INC For: Apr 28 | SEC filing · Form DEF | SEC EDGAR | -1.27% | -0.30% | |
| Form DEFA14A GEO GROUP INC | SEC filing · Form DEFA14A | SEC EDGAR | -1.27% | -0.30% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Feb 27 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -0.55% | -0.69% | |
| The GEO Group Announces Senior Management Changes | Press release | Business Wire | -0.55% | -0.69% | |
| Form 10-K GEO GROUP INC For: Dec 31 | SEC filing · Form 10-K | SEC EDGAR | -0.31% | -0.41% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Feb 06 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +0.66% | +4.64% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Feb 12 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -2.21% | -5.80% | |
| The GEO Group Announces Corporate Reorganization | Press release | Business Wire | -2.21% | -5.80% | |
| The GEO Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results | Press release | Business Wire | -2.21% | -5.80% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Jan 20 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -0.30% | -2.62% | |
| The GEO Group Announces Expansion of Revolving Credit Facility by $100 Million | Press release | Business Wire | +0.17% | +3.05% | |
| The GEO Group Announces Date for Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call | Press release | Business Wire | -1.94% | +1.84% | |
| The GEO Group Awarded Contract by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement for Provision of Skip Tracing Services | Press release | Business Wire | -1.32% | +0.96% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Dec 04 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +1.79% | -0.72% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Nov 13 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +1.72% | +1.38% | |
| Form 10-Q GEO GROUP INC For: Sep 30 | SEC filing · Form 10-Q | SEC EDGAR | -0.27% | -0.27% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Nov 06 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -4.25% | -12.69% | |
| The GEO Group Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results and Increases Share Repurchase Authorization to $500 Million | Press release | Business Wire | -4.25% | -12.69% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Oct 02 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +0.32% | -0.20% | |
| The GEO Group Announces Date for Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call | Press release | Business Wire | -0.28% | +1.98% | |
| The GEO Group Awarded Contract by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement for Continued Provision of Services Under Intensive Supervision Appearance Program | Press release | Business Wire | -0.28% | +1.98% | |
| The GEO Group Announces Contracts for Three Correctional and Rehabilitation Facilities in Florida | Press release | Business Wire | -0.81% | -0.59% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Aug 13 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +1.13% | — | |
| Form 10-Q GEO GROUP INC For: Jun 30 | SEC filing · Form 10-Q | SEC EDGAR | +0.68% | -6.40% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Aug 06 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -5.30% | -15.54% | |
| The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter 2025 Results and Announces $300 Million Share Repurchase Program | Press release | Business Wire | -5.30% | -15.54% | |
| The GEO Group Closes Sale of Company-Owned Lawton Correctional Facility in Oklahoma for $312 Million | Press release | Business Wire | +0.31% | +1.64% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Jul 14 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -0.36% | -3.04% | |
| The GEO Group Announces Date for Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call | Press release | Business Wire | +1.39% | +1.51% | |
| The GEO Group Amends Senior Revolving Credit Facility | Press release | Business Wire | +0.31% | +1.70% | |
| Form 8-K GEO GROUP INC For: Jul 03 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +0.00% | -0.65% | |
| The GEO Group Announces It Has Entered Into a Purchase Agreement to Acquire the 770-Bed Western Region Detention Facility in San Diego, California for $60 Million | Press release | Business Wire | +0.02% | +2.68% | |
| Form 11-K GEO GROUP INC For: Dec 31 | SEC filing · Form 11-K | SEC EDGAR | -0.68% | +1.58% |
Each reaction is the move the market actually made, measured from the news timestamp. Headlines link through to the GEO section they belong to.
Where else GEO is measured.
GEO earnings → · Analyst actions → · SEC filings →
Other Real Estate names, measured the same way
| Ticker | Events | Median 30-min | % positive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robinhood Ventures Fund I Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (RVI) | 317 | +0.03% | 52% |
| CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. (CBL) | 316 | +0.03% | 55% |
| Marcus & Millichap, Inc. (MMI) | 315 | -0.09% | 47% |
| Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. (SBRA) | 314 | 0.00% | 49% |
Same sector, same measurement: percent move vs. the price at the news timestamp, read at 30 minutes. Sample sizes differ, so the medians are comparable but the confidence behind them is not.
All Real Estate names, measured the same way →
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Every name we’ve measured, in one place.
How the numbers are made.
How is Geo Group Inc (The) REIT's median reaction calculated?
Every labeled GEO news event is measured from its own timestamp: the last trade before the news is the base price, and the move is read at fixed horizons — 30 minutes of trading, then the close. The median across 316 events is what this page reports. Point-in-time, zero look-ahead: no event borrows information from a later one.
What counts as a positive reaction?
Any event whose price move is above zero at the horizon, relative to the last trade before the news timestamp. 50% of GEO's measured events are up at 30 minutes; the rest close the window flat or negative.
How often is this page updated?
The news table refreshes automatically as new events are labeled and priced. The reaction medians are re-pulled in batches from the dataset — the figures here are as of 2026-09-21.
Does GEO's past reaction predict its next one?
No. These are realized facts about past events, not forecasts. They describe a distribution — they say nothing certain about any future move.