Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)
FLY moved a median of -0.08% 30 minutes after news, and -0.16% by the close. How FLY actually reacts to news — the realized, point-in-time move the market made, measured across 861 labeled events over the last three years with zero look-ahead.
FLY’s median reaction, across the day.
| Horizon | Median | % positive | Events |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-min | -0.07% | 49% | 853 |
| 30-min | -0.08% | 45% | 854 |
| 60-min | -0.28% | 47% | 854 |
| to close | -0.16% | 49% | 841 |
| Middle 50% of FLY reactions | -2.18% to +1.23% |
|---|---|
| Median reaction (30-min) | -0.08% |
| Measured reactions | 861 |
Half of all Firefly Aerospace Inc. news events land between -2.18% and +1.23% at 30 minutes.
Reaction stats as of 2026-09-21. Newest measured event . Reaction = percent move vs. the price at the news timestamp.
How FLY reacts, by analyst action.
| Event | Events | Median 30-min | % positive | Median to close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst upgrades | 15 | -0.50% | 40% | -0.12% |
| Coverage initiations | 30 | +2.00% | 77% | -1.71% |
| Rating reiterations | 21 | +0.98% | 62% | -0.64% |
Last 3 years, pulled 2026-09-21. Reaction = percent move vs. the price at the news timestamp. Counts and medians only. The same measurement runs across every name in the dataset. 3 further classes were observed with fewer than 10 measured events and are not published. See how FLY ranks against every other measured name →
That’s how FLY usually reacts — get an email when it moves on news →Email me when FLY moves on news.
One email per qualifying move — the headline, the measured reaction, and how it compares to FLY's baseline. Nothing else.
Recent FLY events, each with its measured reaction.
| Date | Headline | Event | Source | 5-min | To close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firefly Aerospace to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 10, 2026 | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -1.40% | +8.59% | |
| Firefly’s SciTec Expands Contract with U.S. Air Force to Add Counter UAS Data in Advanced Battle Management System | Press release | GlobeNewswire | +0.05% | -2.45% | |
| Mission Control to Enable Lunar Surface Communications between MBRSC's Rashid Rover 2 and Firefly Lunar Lander | Press release | PR Web | -1.34% | -2.36% | |
| Form 8-K Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: Sep 30 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -1.34% | -2.36% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Signs Starcloud as Commercial Customer, Demonstrating Data Center Capabilities Around the Moon | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -1.17% | -3.14% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Completes New Cleanroom to Accelerate Spacecraft Production | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -0.31% | +1.41% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Signs Contract with SSC Space for Two Alpha Launches from Esrange Space Center | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -0.78% | -6.15% | |
| Before Anything Flies to Space, It Has to Be Built, Tested, and Proven on the Ground, and That Quiet Bottleneck Is Becoming a Business | Press release | Canada Newswire | +0.87% | +1.79% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Onboards Zeno Power on Blue Ghost Mission to Demonstrate Radioisotope Technologies to Survive the Lunar Night | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -3.42% | -2.73% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Onboarded to NASA Spacecraft Processing Operations Contract | Press release | GlobeNewswire | +1.13% | +1.48% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Awarded Contract to Design Elytra Deorbit System for Defense Innovation Unit | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -1.16% | -3.68% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Announces Extension of Multi-Launch Agreement with Lockheed Martin Through 2031 | Press release | GlobeNewswire | +0.04% | -0.64% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results With Record Revenue Of $117.7 Million, Up 659% Year-Over-Year | Press release | GlobeNewswire | +0.04% | -0.64% | |
| Firefly’s SciTec Awarded $94 Million U.S. Space Force Contract to Advance Ground-Based Radar Digitization Program | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -1.02% | +3.62% | |
| Form 10-Q Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: Jun 30 | SEC filing · Form 10-Q | SEC EDGAR | +0.04% | -0.64% | |
| Form 8-K Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: Aug 11 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +0.04% | -0.64% | |
| Firefly Aerospace to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 11, 2026 | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -0.98% | -6.99% | |
| Form D Firefly Aerospace Inc. | SEC filing · Form D | SEC EDGAR | -0.48% | -2.77% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Receives $13 Million NASA JPL Subcontract to Build Aeroshell for SkyFall Mars Mission | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -2.02% | -7.23% | |
| Firefly Aerospace and SSC Space Meet Next Critical Milestone for Orbital Launch from Esrange Space Center | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -0.19% | +2.33% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Awarded $144 Million NASA CLPS Contract for Accelerated Blue Ghost Lunar Mission | Press release | GlobeNewswire | +2.42% | -3.50% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Acquires Space-ng to Advance Future of Autonomous Space Operations | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -3.74% | -3.11% | |
| Form 8-K Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: Jun 04 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -1.45% | -2.79% | |
| Firefly Subsidiary SciTec Awarded U.S. Air Force Contract Option to Deliver Data Fusion Capabilities for Advanced Battle Management System | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -2.33% | -2.08% | |
| Form 8-K Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: May 28 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -2.33% | -2.08% | |
| Form EFFECT Firefly Aerospace Inc. | SEC filing · Form EFFECT | SEC EDGAR | -3.34% | +0.50% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -3.34% | +0.50% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Announces Launch of Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -2.66% | -1.87% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Wins $75 Million NASA JPL MoonFall Subcontract to Deliver Drones to the Moon’s South Pole | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -2.66% | -1.87% | |
| Form S-1 Firefly Aerospace Inc. | SEC filing · Form S-1 | SEC EDGAR | -2.66% | -1.87% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Accelerates Spacecraft Production with Expanded Campus and Innovation Lab in Central Texas | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -3.15% | -0.54% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Subsidiary SciTec Awarded AFRL Contract for Advanced Algorithm R&D and Verification Architecture | Press release | GlobeNewswire | +4.24% | +6.27% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -6.92% | -18.55% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Subsidiary SciTec Receives Agreement to Advance Space Force’s Space-Based Missile Defense Under Golden Dome | Press release | GlobeNewswire | +0.59% | -1.27% | |
| Form 10-Q Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: Mar 31 | SEC filing · Form 10-Q | SEC EDGAR | -6.92% | -18.55% | |
| Form 8-K Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: May 04 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | -6.92% | -18.55% | |
| Firefly Aerospace to Announce First Quarter 2026 Financial Results on May 4, 2026 | Press release | GlobeNewswire | +1.73% | -4.60% | |
| Form 8-K Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: Apr 15 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +1.73% | -4.60% | |
| Form ARS Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: Dec 31 | SEC filing · Form ARS | SEC EDGAR | +1.65% | -0.58% | |
| Form DEF 14A Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: Jun 04 | SEC filing · Form DEF | SEC EDGAR | +1.65% | -0.58% | |
| Form DEFA14A Firefly Aerospace Inc. | SEC filing · Form DEFA14A | SEC EDGAR | +1.65% | -0.58% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Enables On-Orbit Processing for Moon Imaging Service with NVIDIA Jetson | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -2.51% | +0.32% | |
| Form 8-K Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: Apr 02 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +0.24% | +2.89% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Supports U.S. Space Force VICTUS DIEM Exercise | Press release | GlobeNewswire | +1.88% | -0.34% | |
| Form 10-K Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: Dec 31 | SEC filing · Form 10-K | SEC EDGAR | +2.78% | -8.98% | |
| Form POS EX Firefly Aerospace Inc. | SEC filing · Form POS | SEC EDGAR | +2.78% | -8.98% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results with Record Annual Revenue Up 163% Year-over-Year | Press release | GlobeNewswire | +2.78% | -8.98% | |
| Form 8-K Firefly Aerospace Inc. For: Mar 19 | SEC filing · Form 8-K | SEC EDGAR | +2.78% | -8.98% | |
| Firefly Aerospace to Announce Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results on March 19, 2026 | Press release | GlobeNewswire | +5.29% | -1.55% | |
| Firefly Aerospace Successfully Launches Alpha Flight 7 | Press release | GlobeNewswire | -1.17% | -1.98% |
Each reaction is the move the market actually made, measured from the news timestamp. Headlines link through to the FLY section they belong to.
Where else FLY is measured.
FLY earnings → · Analyst actions → · SEC filings →
Other Industrials names, measured the same way
| Ticker | Events | Median 30-min | % positive |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOBILE MINI (MINI) | 888 | -0.03% | 48% |
| SPARTAN MOTORS (SPAR) | 883 | 0.00% | 45% |
| ENGILITY HOLDINGS (EGL) | 855 | 0.00% | 49% |
| Lawson Products, Inc. (LAWS) | 853 | 0.00% | 42% |
Same sector, same measurement: percent move vs. the price at the news timestamp, read at 30 minutes. Sample sizes differ, so the medians are comparable but the confidence behind them is not.
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Every name we’ve measured, in one place.
How the numbers are made.
How is Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s median reaction calculated?
Every labeled FLY news event is measured from its own timestamp: the last trade before the news is the base price, and the move is read at fixed horizons — 30 minutes of trading, then the close. The median across 861 events is what this page reports. Point-in-time, zero look-ahead: no event borrows information from a later one.
What counts as a positive reaction?
Any event whose price move is above zero at the horizon, relative to the last trade before the news timestamp. 45% of FLY's measured events are up at 30 minutes; the rest close the window flat or negative.
How often is this page updated?
The news table refreshes automatically as new events are labeled and priced. The reaction medians are re-pulled in batches from the dataset — the figures here are as of 2026-09-21.
Does FLY's past reaction predict its next one?
No. These are realized facts about past events, not forecasts. They describe a distribution — they say nothing certain about any future move.