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Stock impact report

Financial conditions vs real rates - is Fed policy too tight or too loose? [Globe and Mail, The (Toronto, Canada)]

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc Unsponsored American Depositary Shares (Japan) (SMFG) 
US:NYSE Investor Relations: smfg.co.jp/english/investor
for Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. economy and asset prices, investors now have to make sense of a growing disconnect between real interest rates and financial conditions. In simple terms, is U.S. monetary policy too tight or too loose? Normally this would be a fairly straightforward question, but there are currently contradictory signals. By some measures, the Fed's inflation-adjusted policy rate is nearing the highest level since 2007. And that's after the jumbo-sized 50 basis point rate cut in September. This would suggest the Fed has plenty of scope to continue cutting rates, perhaps even by “hundreds of basis points,” as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee recently suggested. The Fed's current policy stance also appears highly restrictive when set against estimates of ‘R-Star' – the nebulous real rate of interest that neither accelerates nor slows growth in a world of 2% inflation – which is currently estimated to be somewhere between 0.7% and 1.2%. Yet many market- Show less Read more
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