How Trump’s policy risk is showing in Treasury bonds [Globe and Mail, The (Toronto, Canada)]
Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR)
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Source: Globe and Mail, The
But one measure of risk embedded in that number remained stubbornly positive, in a sign of underlying investor unease. The term premium, a component of yields, is a measure of the compensation investors want for the risk of lending money for the life of a 10-year Treasury bond. Even as the yield on the 10-year fell around 50 basis points, the term premium stayed positive in the weeks after Trump’s inauguration. That Treasury rally was largely reversed this week as Trump’s wide-ranging trade tariffs spooked financial markets. A rapid selloff left Treasury yields only about 20 basis points below their levels when Trump returned to the White House. And the term premium surged even higher. A theoretical measure, the term premium captures a variety of elements, including uncertainty about future monetary policy and the U.S. government’s credit worthiness, investors and academics say. A persistently positive term premium could be an early sign that bond vigilantes - investors who may h
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