Homebuilder Optimism May Be Ending As Conditions Weaken [Forbes]
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)
Last pultegroup, inc. earnings: 4/23 06:30 am
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Source: Forbes
The increased sales combined with rising prices made for wonderful earnings and cash flow. So, what's a developer to do? Why, buy properties and build, of course. The proof of that optimistic strategy is in the abnormally high inventory of unsold homes. The overbuilding began 2-1/2 years ago in March 2022. This graph shows how the usual 6-month inventory expanded. Currently, it is 27% higher than normal - a hefty cash commitment that carries a sizable risk of having to mark down prices in the future to reduce the overage. New homes for sale (orange line) and sold (green line) John Tobey (FRB of St Louis - FRED) So, why the optimism? The 2020-2021 sales bulge, along with expectations of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates. The problem is that the 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates historically do not follow Fed-managed short-term rates. The same holds true for the much-watched 10-year US Treasury bond rate. And that is what the media is now writing about now - that the
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PHM
Earnings
- 10/22/24 - Beat
PHM
Sec Filings
- 10/31/24 - Form SCHEDULE
- 10/25/24 - Form 4
- 10/22/24 - Form 10-Q
- PHM's page on the SEC website