The S&P 500 just reclaimed its 200-day moving average — but history says it may not be a good thing [Yahoo! Finance Canada]
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Source: Yahoo! Finance Canada
But history shows it may not last long. The S&P 500's ( ^GSPC ) rally earlier this week allowed the major index to reclaim its widely watched 200-day moving average. In its simplest form, the 200-day moving average is a measure of market sentiment over a long period of time. The index had been trading above its 200-day moving average for 336 straight sessions, according to new data from Sundial Capital Research. But concerns around tariffs this month sent the index below the key indicator for 10 consecutive sessions. Going back to 1946, Sundial Capital Research found 11 times when the S&P 500 went more than 200 sessions above its 200-day moving average and then dropped below it for between five and 15 sessions before reclaiming it. Three months after this happened, the mean return was -2.9%. Six months later, it was -1.1%. And one year later, it was -1.1%. "Even if we loosen the parameters in the study above, the S&P's returns in the months ahead tended to be weaker than avera
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