The Bond Market Might Be Totally Wrong About Recession [Forbes]
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Source: Forbes
The Bond Market Might Be Totally Wrong About Recession The wise ole bond market is supposed to be the great sage of pending recessions. A flat yield curve? Ut-oh, the economy is faltering. An inverted yield curve? Wall Street is convinced economic contraction is merely a quarter or two away. In a world where stocks are bonds (thanks to dividend yield) and bonds are stocks (thanks to principal gains), the bond market may be totally wrong about a recession next year. Even the year after. For some wise guys, the economy is so fundamentally sound that banks and lenders are willing to give borrowers a haircut on what is owed to them just so they can lend money. “I don’t believe there is a recession coming,” says Alex Ely, chief investment officer for U.S. small to mid-cap growth equity at Macquarie Investment Management. “Consumers are not extended. Unemployment levels are low and wage growth is high so we are optimistic,” he says, adding that 2020 looks fine. The only people talking about
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