First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey [CNBC]
Moody's Corporation (MCO)
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Source: CNBC
The survey also shows Core PCE inflation will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year. The dour new forecasts come as the decline in consumer and business sentiment from the emerging trade war is showing up in real economic activity. U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One before landing in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., March 28, 2025. Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update. The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic. Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming
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MCO
Earnings
- 10/23/25 - Beat
MCO
Sec Filings
- 12/16/25 - Form 4
- 12/16/25 - Form 4
- 12/16/25 - Form 4
- MCO's page on the SEC website