Tariffs likely to delay return to 2% inflation in 2025, Goldman Sachs says [Yahoo! Finance]
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS)
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Source: Yahoo! Finance
The brokerage said that recent inflation data showed disinflation still remained sluggish, and that inflation was expected to peter out further in the remainder of 2024. Core personal consumption expenditures inflation - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge- is expected to slow to a 0.16% average pace in the final two months of 2024, GS said in a note. But the brokerage warned that tariffs are likely to “delay a return to 2% inflation in 2025.” “We expect tariff increases on imports from China and autos that raise the effective tariff rate by 3-4 percentage points (pp), which we estimate would raise core PCE inflation by about 0.3-0.4pp next year, leaving it at 2.4% in December 2025,” GS analysts wrote in a note. Still, they said that inflation from tariffs was likely to be a one-time increase, and would not deter a trend of falling inflation. Excluding the impact of tariffs, GS expects core consumer price index inflation to fall to an annual pace of 2.4% in December 2025 fr
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