Goldman Sachs increases recession probability, warns of further downgrade if more tariffs take effect [Yahoo! Finance]
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS)
Last goldman sachs group, inc. (the) earnings: 4/15 07:30 am
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Source: Yahoo! Finance
Economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note titled "Countdown to Recession" that they're increasing their 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%. They also cut their gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 to 0.5% from Q4 to Q4, citing a "sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed." The Goldman economists said that their baseline forecast still assumes the effective U.S. tariff rate will rise by 15 percentage points, which they noted "would now require a large reduction in the tariffs scheduled to take effect on April 9." "If most of the April 9 tariffs do take effect, then the effective tariff rate will rise by an estimated 20pp once those increases and likely sectoral tariffs take effect, even allowing for some country-specific agreements at a later date. If so, we expect to change our forecast to a reces
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GS
Earnings
- 10/14/25 - Beat
GS
Sec Filings
- 12/22/25 - Form 424B2
- 12/19/25 - Form 424B2
- 12/19/25 - Form 424B2
- GS's page on the SEC website