Economists Split on How Deep South Africa's Easing Cycle Will Be [BNN Bloomberg (Canada)]
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS)
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Source: BNN Bloomberg
Rand strength, softer oil prices and slowing inflation, which has dipped below the midpoint of the reserve bank's 3% to 6% target range, was enough to convince the monetary policy committee to reduce the benchmark rate from a 15-year high to 8%. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees the central bank lowering its policy benchmark a further 150 basis points, but others only expect a shallow adjustment with at most two more quarter-point moves. Governor Lesetja Kganyago said that a half-point cut, as well as leaving policy on hold, had also been discussed and that consensus yielding a unanimous vote was “ultimately” achieved, suggesting a spirited debate among the six-member MPC. Still, the South African Reserve Bank's model-based forecast show its policy benchmark declining to 7.17% by the end of next year and 7.09% by end-2026. Its forecasts also show inflation slowing to 4% in 2025, based on assumptions including a rand at 18.04 per dollar. The unit, which has rallied strongly since
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