Don't Ignore Oil Price Heresies [Forbes]
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS)
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Source: Forbes
Modeling Forum #6 at Stanford, where they were compared to the output of nine other models. On her return, she told me that our forecast that oil prices would decline by 25% by 1985 and then begin rising, was an outlier. One other forecast was for flat prices to 2000, the rest showed them increasing relentlessly as the Figure below shows. How should we react, she wondered. (The IPE forecast was Choucri's.) Oil Price Forecasts EMF6 (1980; 2020$/bbl) The author We thought about it and considered that since the oil price had just tripled for the second time in seven years, basic economics suggested supply would rise and demand would fall (relatively speaking), plus the global economy was slowing. Lower prices seemed pretty likely despite the insistence of so many experts that oil was ‘different' and didn't obey the laws of supply and demand. We stood by our forecast. The result, as you can see, is that our forecast for 1985 was pretty close to the actual price, but by 2000, we we
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