Apodaca: Chapman experts make an economic forecast for the coming year [Los Angeles Times (CA)]
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS)
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Source: Los Angeles Times
Or so the stodgy image would lead us to believe. But there's more to it than that. Otherwise, every forecast would predict exactly the same thing. While the majority tend to move in the same direction with their predictions, there's always some divergence when it comes to degrees of change expected, and some forecasters have been known to buck the consensus and go out on a limb on occasion. The fact is that a certain amount of art is involved in the discipline of divining our economic future, even with the most rigorously statistics-based forecasts. Just ask the folks behind Chapman University's closely watched economic forecast. “It definitely is not a perfect science,” said Raymond Sfeir, the director of Chapman's A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research and Anderson Chair of Economic Analysis. Sfeir and Chapman's President Emeritus James Doti are the lead authors of the forecast. “There is an art to it. You cannot just run the model and say ‘This is it.' The equations
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