The ‘Trump Trade' Crypto Narrative is Overblown [Yahoo! Finance]
General Motors Company (GM)
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Source: Yahoo! Finance
Bitcoin recently crossed $73,000 and nearly touched its prior all-time high on the same day that Trump' odds of winning the election on betting market Polymarket hit 69%, its highest level since the failed assassination attempt on the former president's life in June. Many pundits see Bitcoin's recent strength as a sign that investors are positioning for a potential Trump victory. Others have gone further, arguing that recent strength in U.S. stocks and even the dollar are being driven by Trump wagers, as investors anticipate tax cuts will boost corporate profits, and protectionist trade policies could strengthen the greenback. Collectively, this is known as the “Trump Trade,” and if you read the papers, and more than a few sell-side reports, it's all the rage! It's a tidy (if unnerving) narrative, but is it even true? To find out, we looked at the data. Prediction markets were a good place to start. Polymarket and PredictIt allow bettors to wager on who will win the election.
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