With uncertainty around iron ore demand, Citi sees a risk for Australian economy [Yahoo! Finance]
FORTESCUE METAL GRP S/ADR (FSUGY)
NASDAQ:AMEX Investor Relations:
fmgl.com.au/investors
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Source: Yahoo! Finance
In the fiscal year 2024, iron ore economic profit from major mining companies BHP Group Ltd ADR (NYSE:BHP), Rio Tinto ADR (NYSE:RIO), and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX:FMG) was approximately A$36 billion. This figure represents a substantial portion of the total economic profit from Citi's Australian mining coverage, which stood at around A$39 billion. "Although there is near-term iron cost curve support, we see longer-term downside risk as the curve can reshape considerably on materially lower China demand," it is said in the report. The report also noted the near-term support for iron ore prices due to the cost curve. When iron ore prices are high, China's imports from countries other than Australia, Brazil, and South Africa tend to increase to about 20 million tons per month. Conversely, when prices drop to the US$90-US$100 per ton range, these imports shrink to roughly 10 million tons per month. As of July, imports had fallen to approximately 14 million tons per month.
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