China's stimulus plans are choking the profitability of its megabanks, analysts say [CNBC]
CHINA CONSTR BK UNSP/ADR (CICHY)
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Source: CNBC
“We expect net interest margins to see a small contraction in the fourth quarter and a larger decline in first quarter of 2025,” Karen Wu, an analyst for CreditSights, told CNBC. That prediction aligned with an annual forecast by analysts from Morningstar. They see NIM for state-owned banks contracting by 15-25 basis points in 2024. China's largest state-owned banks are likely to see their record low profit margins decline even further as Beijing's broader stimulus package comes into play, analysts say. The net interest margins (NIM), a key proxy of bank profitability, at China's “Big 4” lenders — Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) China Construction Bank Bank of China Agricultural Bank of China — fell by an average of around 20 basis points in the first nine months of 2024 from a year ago, CreditSights analysts said in a report. ICBC, the world's largest lender by asset, was the only major lender among the Big 4 that reported a flat NIM in the third quarter compa
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