Need to Know: Irrational exuberance? Why last year’s stellar returns may have been a reversal of ‘excessive pessimism’ [MarketWatch]
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Source: MarketWatch
Irrational exuberance? Why last year’s stellar returns may have been a reversal of ‘excessive pessimism’ On the first working day of 2020, let’s take a moment to appreciate the virtues of a vice: laziness. Say what you will about new year’s resolutions, but last year, letting a boring old S&P 500-tracking index fund do its work was one of the best investment decisions around. Including dividend reinvestment, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.29% returned 33% in 2019, outperforming virtually every national index and very nearly every investment strategy. For the decade, according to Deutsche Bank, the S&P 500 returned a cool 256%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.30% returned 347%. So the obvious question is, can the gains continue? Tim Duy, a University of Oregon professor who closely tracks the Federal Reserve, plotted the return of the S&P 500 on a logarithmic scale to show that the current gains are nothing like the acceleration from the late 1990s . “This doesn’t surprise me a
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