“We put out material news and the market shrugs.”
The other version of the same problem: “The board asks whether IR is working, and all I have is activity metrics: calls held, conferences attended. I can’t show outcomes.” Both have one fix — measure the market reaction to every announcement against 20+ years of the same event class, and report that.
The board does not ask how busy IR was.
Activity metrics count effort. Outcome metrics count consequences. Only one of the two answers the question the board is actually asking.
Counts of effort. None of them says whether the market heard anything. A record quarter of activity and a flat tape fit on the same slide.
Measured consequences, per announcement. Reportable to a board, comparable quarter over quarter, and honest when the answer is “no measurable reaction.”
What a measured outcome looks like.
Every announcement gets three numbers: the market reaction from the release timestamp, volume as a multiple of your average, and where that reaction sits against 20+ years of the same event class. When the market shrugs, the shrug is measured too.
Price move measured from the release timestamp, not from the open.
Trading volume against your own 20-day average — did anyone show up.
Where this reaction sits against 20+ years of guidance raises across the dataset.
Outcome metrics for your next board deck.
One quarter, one row per announcement. Two of these four releases registered; two did not. Both facts belong in front of the board — the flat rows are where the IR conversation starts.
| Date | Event type | Headline | Reaction % | Volume multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24 | Earnings | Q1 results, guidance raised | +3.8% | 2.9× |
| May 12 | 8-K | CFO appointment | 0.0% | 1.1× |
| May 28 | Product | Platform launch announcement | 0.0% | 1.0× |
| Jun 09 | Contract | Multi-year supply agreement | +2.4% | 1.8× |
Illustrative, anonymized. Each row is one announcement: measured reaction, measured volume, benchmarked against the 20-year baseline for its event class. Rows at 0.0% are recorded as no measurable reaction. This table is the deliverable — outcome metrics for your next board deck.
What counts as a market reaction?
The price move measured from the release timestamp across defined windows, plus trading volume against your own average. A move below the noise threshold for your stock is recorded as no measurable reaction — it is a data point, not a gap.
Where does the baseline come from?
26M+ news events over 20+ years, grouped by event class. Your guidance raise is compared to 20 years of guidance raises, not to news in general. The event-reaction methodology was peer-reviewed in 2016.
What exactly goes into the board deck?
One row per announcement: measured reaction, volume multiple, and where it sits against the 20-year baseline for its event class — quarter over quarter. It replaces the activity slide, it does not sit next to it.