Who Did Get the Election Right: the Betting Markets [Yahoo! Finance]
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. - Class A (IBKR)
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Source: Yahoo! Finance
For weeks, the polls have predicted a tight race, but in the end it was the betting markets that called the race correctly. On Tuesday, a suite of gambling platforms predicted a Trump landslide. Polymarket, a crypto exchange and (by its own account) the world's largest prediction market, projected that the 78-year-old led Kamala Harris by 38 points. Similarly, the sites Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt, and Interactive Brokers favored Trump by 50 to 60 percent. The final tally isn‘t in yet, but the Associated Press called the race with Trump at 277 electoral votes to Harris's 224. Ahead of election night, experts expressed skepticism about the betting markets' confidence. It has occasionally seem misplaced: In late October, for example, it emerged that a wealthy Frenchman had tipped the scales toward Trump with a $28 million wager that substantially moved the market. That was the fear among economists and researchers: Massive wagers from wealthy individuals overseas muddied the wa
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